Resumen Lectura 1 Obligatoria Políticas de Seguridad y Prevención (2016)Apunte Inglés
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Políticas públicas de seguridad y Prevención
2015/2016 – maria47
World Economic Forum (2014)
Innovations such as the Internet and mobile phone have boosted productivity, created new
business opportunities and enhanced access to information.
Economic growth may be inexorably undermining its own foundations through its negative sideeffects on ecosystems, biodiversity and the climate.
The greater the interdependencies between countries and industries, the greater the potential for events to bring out unforeseen, cascading consequences. Syria’s refugee crisis destabilized the entire Middle East.
Part 1: Global Risks 2014: Understanding Systemic Risks in a Changing Global Environment A global risk is defined as an occurrence that causes significant negative impact for several countries and industries over a time frame up to 10 years.
Systemic risk is the risk of “breakdowns in an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns in individual parts and components”.
This report considers 31 global risks in five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, technological and societal.
The economic, societal and environmental risks are the risks that the respondents are most concerned about.
Three types of results describing global risks accrue from the survey: Ten Global Risks of Highest Concern in 2014, Global Risks Landscapes 2014 and Global Risks 2014 Interconnections Map.
Ten Global Risks of Highest Concern in 2014 Structural unemployment and underemployment appears second overall, as many people in both advanced and emerging economies struggle to find jobs. Youth unemployment rates hover around 50% in some countries (Greece, Spain, and South Africa).
Environmental risks appear as there of the top global risks of greatest concern. Climate change is the key driver of such uncertain and changing weather patterns.
Box 1.2: Fiscal Crises: Just when you thought it was safe to go back… A fiscal crisis occurs when investors begin to doubt the government’s future ability to repay; the government then has to offer higher interest on its bonds to compensate investors for the increased risk.
The causation can also run the other way: the government may be forced to bail out large banks at risk of default to avoid a systemic financial crisis.
1 Políticas públicas de seguridad y Prevención 2015/2016 – maria47 The Global Risks Landscape 2014 The upper right quadrant shows those global risks that are perceived by the respondents as both potentially impactful and likely to occur. This quadrant is dominated by economic, social and environmental risks.
The upper left quadrant shows those risks that are considered less likely to happen, but would be impactful if they did.
It is need to say that women are typically more sensitive to risk than men. Studies also show that women are more likely to be concerned about environmental issues.
And in general, the younger generation is more concerned about the potential impact of global risks, while perceptions of likelihood show no such consistent deviation.
Furthermore, while both age groups agree on the likelihood of environmental risks, younger respondents consider risks such as water crises, man-made natural catastrophes, the loss of biodiversity and extreme weather events more impactful if they were to occur.
The Global Risks 2014 Interconnections Map The Global Risks Interconnections Map seeks to connect the dots by identifying and visualizing the underlying patterns.
The Global Risks Interconnections Map shows how all global risks are connected to others and underlines the complexity of dealing with global risk in an effective manner.
Respondents viewed global governance failure as one of the risks mots connected to others.
Macroeconomic risks were strongly linked by respondents to various socio-economic issues.
The risk of global governance failure, which lies at the heart of the risk map, is linked to the risk of climate change.
Arguably, such a heterogeneous and diverse intergovernmental and public-private response to the climate-change risk could offer more resilience and flexibility to the dynamic challenge of climate change than a homogenous, single global framework.
Conclusion Economic, societal and environmental concerns continue to dominate the global risks landscape in the minds of leaders around the globe.
Global risks can be effectively dealt with if there is a common understanding of their importance and interconnected nature, and a readiness to engage in multistakeholder dialogue and action.